Tuesday, September 15, 2015

2015-Comparing Actual results to statistical predictions

Let's see how this year's competition matched the historical averages that I posted earlier in the week.

In general:  The South had a super strong year while the other three regions (Northeast, Midwest, and West) were off their usual averages. Also, the states with the strongest records were even stronger than usual.

TOP 5 COMPARISON
Usually one state repeats in Top 5 from one year to the next.  This year zero (0) states returned to the Top 5 from last year.

Regional Top 5 averages are 2-3 from the South (4 this year); one from the Midwest (0 this year), one from the West (1 this year), and 0-1  from the North (0 this year).

TOP 10 COMPARISON
Preliminary Winners
Over the last 20 years, an average of FOUR (4) prelim winners have made Top 15 and then Top 10.
This year all five women who won the six prelim awards made Top 15 AND then Top 12, and four advanced to Top 10.

With a preliminary winner becoming Miss America, that fact that the program has NEVER gone four consecutive years without either a swimsuit or a talent prelim winner taking the title continues.

Repeats from last year
On average, three states repeat in Top 10 from the previous year.
This year FIVE (5) states repeated in Top 10 from last year - Alabama, Florida (3rd year in a row), Mississippi, Oklahoma (6th year in a row), and Tennessee.

Selecting by region
The South had a huge year with NINE (9) of this year's Top 10, against an average of four or five.
The Northeast usually has one, maybe two, but had zero (0) this year.
The Midwest had zero (0) and usually averages two.
The West usually has two and one (1) made Top 10 this year.

Selecting based on record of making Top 10
The Top 10 was heavily populated by the states with the best records.

The 15 states with the best records have put an average of six (6) into the Top 10 and this year eight (8) made it: (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas).
The 15 states with the second-best records have an average of three (3) and two (2) made it this year:
(Iowa and South Carolina).
The 22 states with the third-best records usually have one (1) in Top 10 each year and one (1) made it this year: (Colorado).

TOP 15 COMPARISON
Selecting by Region
The South had eleven (11) of the Top 15 compared to its historical average of 6 or 7.
The Midwest had two (2) against its average of 3.
The West only had one (1) against its average of 3.
The Northeast had one (1) against its average of 3.

Selecting by Record
The 15 states with the best records usually have eight (8) of the Top 15 and this year, that group had ten (10). (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia)
The 15 states with the second-best records usually have six (6) of the Top 15 and this year they only had three (3)(Iowa, Nebraska, and South Carolina)
The 22 states with the third-best records usually have of the Top 15 and this year they had two (2).
(Colorado and West Virginia)

Questions, corrections, feedback, or suggestions?  Post on the CROWNED Facebook page or email me at crownedmissa@gmail.com.

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