How To Select Your Top 15 Using Statistics

Have you recovered from selecting Your Top 10?
I bet you got it down to 10 but you have several women you wish were still on your list.
Well, remember that Miss America plans to announce a Top 15 to start the competition.

Here are tips on how to use similar averages to add five more contestants to your Top 10 to make it a Top 15 list.

Oh, and by the way, since I didn't mention it yesterday - keep it even among the three prelim groups.  Second night talent has a slight edge in the "composite" scoring years of 1992-2013 but it's a 3-4-3 split among the three groups to make Top 10 and roughly a 5-5-5 split to make Top 15.

Here are 13 more screen captures of Miss America state reps at the joyous moment they learned they had made Top 10.

There are several steps to putting together your Top 15.

In 11 of the last 14 competitions, a Top 15/16/20 has been named (2001-2003 & 2008-2014).

STEP 1:

Put four (4) of the six (6) prelim winners in your top 15 :
Six prelim winners in Top 15:  2003
Five prelim winners in Top 15: 2013b, 2013a, 2002, 2001
Four prelim winners in Top 15: 2014, 2012, 2011, 2009
Three prelim winners in Top 15: 2010, 2008
(To see the odds of making Top 10 as a prelim winner, check the previous blog.)

Shannon DePuy
Miss Virginia 1990
Top 10 Finalist

Kylene Barker
Miss Virginia 1978
MISS AMERICA 1979

STEP 2:

Because 45% of the Top 15 came from the South, you need to pick 7 of these States:
(At least 5 states from this group but no more than 9 have made the Top 15 in these eleven competitions)
Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.

Marcia Bell
Miss Kentucky 1978
Top 10 Finalist

Nicole Bethmann
Miss Arkansas 1993
Top 10 Finalist

Because 20% of the Top 15 came from the Midwest, pick 3 from the following:
(At least 1 state from this group but no more than 4 have made the Top 15)
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.

Kelly Garver
Miss Michigan 1986
3rd Runner-up & Talent Prelim Winner

Kimberly Massaro
Miss Missouri 1996
4th runner-up

Because 19% of the Top 15 came from the West, pick 3 from among:
(At least 1 state but no more than 6)
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.

Elizabeth Simmons
Miss Oregon 1993
3rd Runner-up 

Because 17% of the Top 15 came from the North, pick 2 or 3 from the following:
(There have been years when none of these states have made the 15 and at most 6 have made the 15)
Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virgin Islands, West Virginia.

STEP 3:

Now you've selected your Top 15 from the country's FOUR REGIONS.

But wait, there's more!

To do Step 2, take a look at the number of times each of the STATES made Top 15.

8 of the states you selected should be from the 13 states that have made the Top 15 most often.
6 of the states you selected should be from the 20 states in the middle of the pack.
1 of your states should be from the 20 states that made Top 15 the least number of times.

So...if you don't have the right balance of 8-6-1, you can adjust your list. Here's how:

Add or subtract states from each category (Top 13, Middle 20, Remaining 20) until you have 
8 from the Top 13, 6 from the Middle and 1 from the Remaining. 

Teresa Cheatham (l.) and Carolyn Cline (r.)
Miss Alabama 1978 & Miss Florida 1978
1st Runner-up & 2nd Runner-up

The Top 13 states produce 52% of each year's Top 15 on average.
(As a group, at least 6 but no more than 10 of these states have made the Top 15 each year)
8 of your 15 should be from:
Alabama (6 times in the Top 15/16/20 in those 11 years), Arkansas (7), California (8), Florida (8), Indiana (7), Kentucky (6), Maryland (5), New York (8), Oklahoma (9), South Carolina (5), Tennessee (7), Texas 98), and Virginia (6).

Julie Russell
Miss Arkansas 1986
Top 10 Finalist

Dana Brown
Miss Tennessee 1990
2nd Runner-up

The Middle 20 States produce 40% of each year's Top 15 on average. 
(As a group, at least 4 but never more than 8 of these states have made the Top 15 each year)
6 of your 15 should be from:
Arizona (3 times in the "Top 15"), Connecticut (3), Delaware (2), District of Columbia (3), Georgia (4), Hawaii (4), Illinois (3), Iowa (5), Louisiana (2), Massachusetts (3), Michigan (4), Mississippi (5), Missouri (3), Nebraska (3), North Carolina (3), Oregon (3), Rhode Island (2), Utah (4), Washington (4), and Wisconsin (4).

Erika Schwarz
Miss Louisiana 1996
1st Runner-up

Laurie Nelson
Miss Washington 1978
4th Runner-up

The Remaining 20 States produce 8% of each year's Top 15 on average.
(There have been years when none of these states made the 15 and at most 3 did in a single year.)
1 of your 15 should be from:
Alaska (0), Colorado (1), Idaho (1), Kansas (1), Maine (0), Minnesota (1), Montana (1), Nevada (1), New Hampshire (1), New Jersey (1), New Mexico (1), North Dakota (1), Ohio (1), Pennsylvania (1), Puerto Rico (0), South Dakota (1), Vermont (0), Virgin Islands (0), West Virginia (1), and Wyoming (1).

Maya Walker
Miss Colorado 1988
1st Runner-up

It might be comforting to know that these exact results have never happened in tandem. Such is the world of statistics.