You've watched all the "vote" videos.
You've studied the program book.
If you are in A.C., you'll be looking for that special spark during the parade tonight.
You've scoured the internet for photos, videos, and information on each contestant.
You've read everything Junkies has posted online.
You've clicked on every possible photo and video posted on FB.
And now you are trying to predict who will make the cut on Sunday night.
This blog post is here to confuse you even further.
In the words of Severus Snape (via JK Rowling), perhaps using the "exact art and subtle science" of STATISTICS (instead of Potions) might help you narrow your choices.
Caveat: in NO year has the Top 10 reflected these exact stats. These are averages. Stay close to these, but vary as your heart directs.
So, make your list and then enjoy the reactions of the women who are called forward on Sunday night, like those pictured in this post.
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| Laurie Keller Miss Kentucky 1985 Top 10 Finalist |
STEP 1 in creating your Top 10 list:
Consider the Preliminary Winners
Pick four (4) Preliminary Winners to make Top 10. In the last 20 years, at least 2 and as many as all 6 prelim winners have made the 10, with an average of 4 over that span. (4 prelim winners have made Top 10 in five of the last 20 years; 2 or 3 have made it in seven years, and 5 or 6 have made it in eight years, but the average is 4).
Six (6) prelim winners in Top 10 (3 yrs): 2003, 1998, 1996 (two double winners)
Five (5) prelim winners in Top 10 (4 yrs): 2012, 2006, 2000 (one double winner), 1997
Four (4) prelim winners in Top 10 (6 yrs): 2013, 2011, 2005, 2002, 2001, 1995
Three (3) prelim winners in Top 10 (5 yrs): 2014, 2010, 2008, 2007, 2004
Two (2) prelim winners in Top 10 (2 yrs): 2009, 1999
The third night Swimsuit winner (IOWA) has a 85% chance of making Top 10. (17 of the last 20 yrs)
The second night Talent winner (LOUISIANA) has a 70% chance of making Top 10. (14 of 20)
The first night Talent winner (IOWA) has a 70% chance of making Top 10. (14 of 20)
The second night Swimsuit winner (FLORIDA) has a 70% chance of making Top 10. (14 of 20)
The first night Swimsuit winner (SOUTH CAROLINA) has a 60% chance of making Top 10. (12 of 20)
The third night Talent winner (GEORGIA) has a 50% chance of making Top 10. (10 of the last 20 yrs)
for stats about double prelim winners, see the previous blog post.
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| Tamara Marler Miss Oklahoma 1989 Top 10 Finalist & Talent Prelim Winner |
STEP 2:
Figure out which states will repeat in the Top 10 from last year
Pick three (3) states to repeat in the Top 10 from last year's Top 10.At least 1 and as many as 6 states have repeated in Top 10 from one year to the next over the last 20 years, but the average is for 3 states to repeat in the Top 10, which has happened 4 times over the last 20 years.
Pick 3 of these: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Virginia.
6 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2013a
5 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2011, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2000
4 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2013b, 2012, 2010, 2008, 1997, 1996
3 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2014, 1995
2 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2004, 2003, 2002, 1999, 1998
1 repeat in Top 10 from year before: 2001
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| Arian Archer Miss Texas 1994 Top 10 Finalist |
STEP 3:
Select the appropriate number of states from each region of the country
| Year | South | West | North | Midwest | notes |
| 2014 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2013b | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | return to AC |
| 2013 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | last yr in LV |
| 2012 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 2011 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2010 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2009 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| 2008 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| 2007 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2006 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | first yr in LV |
| 2004 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | last yr in AC |
| 2003 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2002 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2001 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2000 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1999 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1998 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1997 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1996 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1995 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Totals | 93 | 37 | 36 | 34 | |
| Averages | 4.65 | 1.85 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Because 46.5% of the Top 10 come from the South, you need to pick 4 or 5 of these States:
(At least 3 states from this group but no more than 8 have made the Top 10 in the last 20 years)
Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.
Because 18.5% of the Top 10 come from the West, pick 2 from among:
(None of the West made it in '06 and '99 but 4 did in '11, '07, & '97, in other yrs between 1-3 did)
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.
Because 18% of the Top 10 came from the North, pick 1 or 2 from the following:
(The North didn't make 10 in '08, '97, and '96, but 4 did in '02, '01, & '99, in other yrs btw 1-3 did)
Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, Vermont, West Virginia.
Because 17% of the Top 10 come from the Midwest, pick 2 from the following:
(None of the Midwest made the 10 in '06 & '07 but 4 states did in '08, in other yrs between 1-3 have)
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
BUT, this exact 4-2-2-2 split has only happened twice in 20 years: in January, 2013 and in 1995, which means you can fluctuate a little bit: one more from one region and one fewer from another, etc.
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| Debbie Reicks Miss Colorado 1989 2nd Runner-up |
STEP 4:
Adjust your list to also have the right group of states based on their records of making Top 10 in the last 20 years:
Predicting the Top 10 based on states' records of making the Top 10 in the last 20 yearsPick 6 from the Top 15 states (Range: 3-8 per year in the Top 10 in the last 20 years):
Alabama (9 times in Top 10 in the last 20 years), Arkansas (8), California (12), Florida (8), Georgia (6), Hawaii (8), Illinois (6), Kentucky (6), Louisiana (6), Mississippi (7), New York (9), Oklahoma (12), Tennessee (6), Texas (12), and Virginia (7).
Pick 3 from the Middle 19 states (Range: 2-5 per year in the Top 10 in the last 20 years):
Arizona (3), Connecticut (3), DC (5), Indiana (5), Iowa (4), Kansas (4), Maryland (5), Massachusetts (4), Michigan (4), Missouri (2), Nebraska (2), New Jersey (2), North Carolina (4), Oregon (4), Pennsylvania (4), South Carolina (2), Utah (2), Washington (4), and Wisconsin (5).
Pick 1 from these 19 states (Range 0-2 per year in the Top 10 in the last 20 years):
Alaska (1), Colorado (0), Delaware (1), Idaho (0), Maine (0), Minnesota (1), Montana (0), Nevada (1), New Hampshire (1), New Mexico (1), North Dakota (1), Ohio (1), Puerto Rico (0), Rhode Island (1), South Dakota (0), Vermont (0), Virgin Islands (0), West Virginia (1), and Wyoming (1).
(This exact grouping has happened three times in the last 20 years: 1997, 2002, and in September, 2013)
Now, take a look at your original predictions. Do you have too many from a particular region or too many from one of the three classifications based on their individual records? The actual results do swing within the ranges I have listed, but it's best to stay close to the historical averages.
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| Jennifer Makris Miss New Jersey 1994 2nd Runner-up |
Sure.
Pick 1 state from last year's Top 5 to repeat in this year's Top 5.
In 14 of the last 20 years, between 1-3 states have repeated in the Top 5 from the previous year's Top 5.
Pick 1 (but not more than 3) from: Arkansas, Florida, Massachusetts, New York, and Virginia.
Pick 2-3 from the South. (The South has had at least one Top 5 Finalist every year since 1990.)
Pick 1 from the Midwest.
Pick 1 from the West.
Pick 0-1 from the North.
(This 2-1-1-1 or 3-1-1-0 split occurred in both the January or September, 2013 competitions and in 2002.)
How often does a prelim winner take the title? 60% of the time.
A Swimsuit or Talent prelim winner has become Miss America in 12 of the last 20 years (not counting Erika Harold's Interview and Onstage Q&A Prelim wins in 2002).
BUT, Miss America has NEVER gone four years in a row with a non-prelim winner taking the title. There have been three separate times when non-prelim winners won three years in a row: 1955-56-57 (Sharon Ritchie, Marian McKnight, and Marilyn Van Derbur), 2002-03-04 (Erika Harold, Ericka Dunlap, and Deidre Downs), and the last three years (Mallory Hagan, Nina Davaluri, and Kira Kazantsev).
So don't automatically assume that a prelim winner will take the title of Miss America 2015, BUT ... consider that it's currently a 2-out-of-3 chance that a prelim winner WILL take the title, AND a fourth consecutive non-prelim winning Miss America would make history.
And see the previous blog post about double prelim winners since IOWA is our first double prelim winner in 15 years!
We'll know tomorrow night.
AND, tomorrow morning, I'll publish directions on how to create your Top 15 Semi-finalists list.
Questions, corrections, feedback, or suggestions? Post on the CROWNED Facebook page or email me at crownedmissa@gmail.com.
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