| If I have learned one thing from my 18 months of blogging, it is that you LOVE rankings. Here are all 50 states (plus DC, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and even Canada) ranked according to their placement in the Top 10 in the years Miss America has been on television (1954-2015). Why just from 1954? Frank DeFord explains it succinctly in his 1970 book There She Is, the Life and Times of Miss America, which was published after the 50th anniversary competition (Phyllis George won that year). Television changed the program immeasurably and made it what we know and love today. Find his book on eBay, buy a copy, and find the passage. As many of you know, for many years cities sent representatives directly to Atlantic City (NYC and Chicago competed separately from their state programs through the early 60s), state competitions as we know them today began in the mid 40s, and we didn't see every state represented at Miss America until 1959. I've chosen to rank states first by the number of women who made Top 10 because that has been a constant over the years. For many years a Top 10 was named and later seven Non-Finalist Talent winners were announced, so I have a separate column for semi-finalists in the years we've had a Top 12, 13, 15, 16, or 20. These rankings constitute the 62 competitions between 1954-2015. An explanation of the various columns: The "10" column shows the number of times a state rep made the Top 10. The "5"column shows the number of times a state rep made the Top 5. The "Top 5" column lists the placements in Top 5 (W=Miss America win, 1=1st Runner-Up, etc.). "SS" and "Tal" show the number of prelim winners in Swimsuit and Talent. "NFT" and "NFI" show the number of Non-Finalist Talent and Non-Finalist Interview awards. "15/20" shows the number of Top 12, 13, 15, 16, 20, etc. semi-finalists Ties have been broken first by the number of Top 5 finalists, then the actual placements within Top 5. Although this is one of the very first lists of stats I ever started keeping, and I have been reviewing and updating it for many years, I'm sure I've got a mistake somewhere. I am counting of you to help me get everything correct, so email away if you find something incorrect or missing. This is a spreadsheet I copied and pasted. The blog format doesn't keep the cel lines and the alignment gets a little wonky. My apologies.
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Friday, September 18, 2015
Updated Miss America bragging rights - EVERY state ranked
Tuesday, September 15, 2015
2015-Comparing Actual results to statistical predictions
Let's see how this year's competition matched the historical averages that I posted earlier in the week.
In general: The South had a super strong year while the other three regions (Northeast, Midwest, and West) were off their usual averages. Also, the states with the strongest records were even stronger than usual.
TOP 5 COMPARISON
Usually one state repeats in Top 5 from one year to the next. This year zero (0) states returned to the Top 5 from last year.
Regional Top 5 averages are 2-3 from the South (4 this year); one from the Midwest (0 this year), one from the West (1 this year), and 0-1 from the North (0 this year).
TOP 10 COMPARISON
Preliminary Winners
Over the last 20 years, an average of FOUR (4) prelim winners have made Top 15 and then Top 10.
This year all five women who won the six prelim awards made Top 15 AND then Top 12, and four advanced to Top 10.
With a preliminary winner becoming Miss America, that fact that the program has NEVER gone four consecutive years without either a swimsuit or a talent prelim winner taking the title continues.
Repeats from last year
On average, three states repeat in Top 10 from the previous year.
This year FIVE (5) states repeated in Top 10 from last year - Alabama, Florida (3rd year in a row), Mississippi, Oklahoma (6th year in a row), and Tennessee.
Selecting by region
The South had a huge year with NINE (9) of this year's Top 10, against an average of four or five.
The Northeast usually has one, maybe two, but had zero (0) this year.
The Midwest had zero (0) and usually averages two.
The West usually has two and one (1) made Top 10 this year.
Selecting based on record of making Top 10
The Top 10 was heavily populated by the states with the best records.
The 15 states with the best records have put an average of six (6) into the Top 10 and this year eight (8) made it: (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas).
The 15 states with the second-best records have an average of three (3) and two (2) made it this year:
(Iowa and South Carolina).
The 22 states with the third-best records usually have one (1) in Top 10 each year and one (1) made it this year: (Colorado).
TOP 15 COMPARISON
Selecting by Region
The South had eleven (11) of the Top 15 compared to its historical average of 6 or 7.
The Midwest had two (2) against its average of 3.
The West only had one (1) against its average of 3.
The Northeast had one (1) against its average of 3.
Selecting by Record
The 15 states with the best records usually have eight (8) of the Top 15 and this year, that group had ten (10). (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia)
The 15 states with the second-best records usually have six (6) of the Top 15 and this year they only had three (3). (Iowa, Nebraska, and South Carolina)
The 22 states with the third-best records usually have 1 of the Top 15 and this year they had two (2).
(Colorado and West Virginia)
Questions, corrections, feedback, or suggestions? Post on the CROWNED Facebook page or email me at crownedmissa@gmail.com.
In general: The South had a super strong year while the other three regions (Northeast, Midwest, and West) were off their usual averages. Also, the states with the strongest records were even stronger than usual.
TOP 5 COMPARISON
Usually one state repeats in Top 5 from one year to the next. This year zero (0) states returned to the Top 5 from last year.
Regional Top 5 averages are 2-3 from the South (4 this year); one from the Midwest (0 this year), one from the West (1 this year), and 0-1 from the North (0 this year).
TOP 10 COMPARISON
Preliminary Winners
Over the last 20 years, an average of FOUR (4) prelim winners have made Top 15 and then Top 10.
This year all five women who won the six prelim awards made Top 15 AND then Top 12, and four advanced to Top 10.
With a preliminary winner becoming Miss America, that fact that the program has NEVER gone four consecutive years without either a swimsuit or a talent prelim winner taking the title continues.
Repeats from last year
On average, three states repeat in Top 10 from the previous year.
This year FIVE (5) states repeated in Top 10 from last year - Alabama, Florida (3rd year in a row), Mississippi, Oklahoma (6th year in a row), and Tennessee.
Selecting by region
The South had a huge year with NINE (9) of this year's Top 10, against an average of four or five.
The Northeast usually has one, maybe two, but had zero (0) this year.
The Midwest had zero (0) and usually averages two.
The West usually has two and one (1) made Top 10 this year.
Selecting based on record of making Top 10
The Top 10 was heavily populated by the states with the best records.
The 15 states with the best records have put an average of six (6) into the Top 10 and this year eight (8) made it: (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas).
The 15 states with the second-best records have an average of three (3) and two (2) made it this year:
(Iowa and South Carolina).
The 22 states with the third-best records usually have one (1) in Top 10 each year and one (1) made it this year: (Colorado).
TOP 15 COMPARISON
Selecting by Region
The South had eleven (11) of the Top 15 compared to its historical average of 6 or 7.
The Midwest had two (2) against its average of 3.
The West only had one (1) against its average of 3.
The Northeast had one (1) against its average of 3.
Selecting by Record
The 15 states with the best records usually have eight (8) of the Top 15 and this year, that group had ten (10). (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia)
The 15 states with the second-best records usually have six (6) of the Top 15 and this year they only had three (3). (Iowa, Nebraska, and South Carolina)
The 22 states with the third-best records usually have 1 of the Top 15 and this year they had two (2).
(Colorado and West Virginia)
Questions, corrections, feedback, or suggestions? Post on the CROWNED Facebook page or email me at crownedmissa@gmail.com.
Sunday, September 13, 2015
How To Select Your Top 15 Using Statistics
Have you recovered from selecting Your Top 10?
I bet you got it down to 10 but you have several women you wish were still on your list.
Well, remember that Miss America plans to announce a Top 15 to start the competition.
Here are tips on how to use similar averages to add five more contestants to your Top 10 to make it a Top 15 list.
Oh, and by the way, since I didn't mention it yesterday - keep it even among the three prelim groups. Second night talent has a slight edge in the "composite" scoring years of 1992-2013 but it's a 3-4-3 split among the three groups to make Top 10 and roughly a 5-5-5 split to make Top 15.
Here are 13 more screen captures of Miss America state reps at the joyous moment they learned they had made Top 10.
Six prelim winners in Top 15: 2003
Five prelim winners in Top 15: 2013b, 2013a, 2002, 2001
Four prelim winners in Top 15: 2014, 2012, 2011, 2009
Three prelim winners in Top 15: 2010, 2008
(To see the odds of making Top 10 as a prelim winner, check the previous blog.)
(At least 5 states from this group but no more than 9 have made the Top 15 in these eleven competitions)
Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.
Because 20% of the Top 15 came from the Midwest, pick 3 from the following:
(At least 1 state from this group but no more than 4 have made the Top 15)
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
Because 19% of the Top 15 came from the West, pick 3 from among:
(At least 1 state but no more than 6)
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.
Because 17% of the Top 15 came from the North, pick 2 or 3 from the following:
(There have been years when none of these states have made the 15 and at most 6 have made the 15)
Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virgin Islands, West Virginia.
8 of the states you selected should be from the 13 states that have made the Top 15 most often.
6 of the states you selected should be from the 20 states in the middle of the pack.
1 of your states should be from the 20 states that made Top 15 the least number of times.
So...if you don't have the right balance of 8-6-1, you can adjust your list. Here's how:
Add or subtract states from each category (Top 13, Middle 20, Remaining 20) until you have
8 from the Top 13, 6 from the Middle and 1 from the Remaining.
The Top 13 states produce 52% of each year's Top 15 on average.
(As a group, at least 6 but no more than 10 of these states have made the Top 15 each year)
8 of your 15 should be from:
Alabama (6 times in the Top 15/16/20 in those 11 years), Arkansas (7), California (8), Florida (8), Indiana (7), Kentucky (6), Maryland (5), New York (8), Oklahoma (9), South Carolina (5), Tennessee (7), Texas 98), and Virginia (6).
The Middle 20 States produce 40% of each year's Top 15 on average.
(As a group, at least 4 but never more than 8 of these states have made the Top 15 each year)
6 of your 15 should be from:
Arizona (3 times in the "Top 15"), Connecticut (3), Delaware (2), District of Columbia (3), Georgia (4), Hawaii (4), Illinois (3), Iowa (5), Louisiana (2), Massachusetts (3), Michigan (4), Mississippi (5), Missouri (3), Nebraska (3), North Carolina (3), Oregon (3), Rhode Island (2), Utah (4), Washington (4), and Wisconsin (4).
The Remaining 20 States produce 8% of each year's Top 15 on average.
(There have been years when none of these states made the 15 and at most 3 did in a single year.)
1 of your 15 should be from:
Alaska (0), Colorado (1), Idaho (1), Kansas (1), Maine (0), Minnesota (1), Montana (1), Nevada (1), New Hampshire (1), New Jersey (1), New Mexico (1), North Dakota (1), Ohio (1), Pennsylvania (1), Puerto Rico (0), South Dakota (1), Vermont (0), Virgin Islands (0), West Virginia (1), and Wyoming (1).
It might be comforting to know that these exact results have never happened in tandem. Such is the world of statistics.
I bet you got it down to 10 but you have several women you wish were still on your list.
Well, remember that Miss America plans to announce a Top 15 to start the competition.
Here are tips on how to use similar averages to add five more contestants to your Top 10 to make it a Top 15 list.
Oh, and by the way, since I didn't mention it yesterday - keep it even among the three prelim groups. Second night talent has a slight edge in the "composite" scoring years of 1992-2013 but it's a 3-4-3 split among the three groups to make Top 10 and roughly a 5-5-5 split to make Top 15.
Here are 13 more screen captures of Miss America state reps at the joyous moment they learned they had made Top 10.
There are several steps to putting together your Top 15.
In 11 of the last 14 competitions, a Top 15/16/20 has been named (2001-2003 & 2008-2014).
STEP 1:
Put four (4) of the six (6) prelim winners in your top 15 :Six prelim winners in Top 15: 2003
Five prelim winners in Top 15: 2013b, 2013a, 2002, 2001
Four prelim winners in Top 15: 2014, 2012, 2011, 2009
Three prelim winners in Top 15: 2010, 2008
(To see the odds of making Top 10 as a prelim winner, check the previous blog.)
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| Shannon DePuy Miss Virginia 1990 Top 10 Finalist |
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| Kylene Barker Miss Virginia 1978 MISS AMERICA 1979 |
STEP 2:
Because 45% of the Top 15 came from the South, you need to pick 7 of these States:(At least 5 states from this group but no more than 9 have made the Top 15 in these eleven competitions)
Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.
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| Marcia Bell Miss Kentucky 1978 Top 10 Finalist |
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| Nicole Bethmann Miss Arkansas 1993 Top 10 Finalist |
(At least 1 state from this group but no more than 4 have made the Top 15)
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
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| Kelly Garver Miss Michigan 1986 3rd Runner-up & Talent Prelim Winner |
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| Kimberly Massaro Miss Missouri 1996 4th runner-up |
(At least 1 state but no more than 6)
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.
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| Elizabeth Simmons Miss Oregon 1993 3rd Runner-up |
Because 17% of the Top 15 came from the North, pick 2 or 3 from the following:
(There have been years when none of these states have made the 15 and at most 6 have made the 15)
Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virgin Islands, West Virginia.
STEP 3:
Now you've selected your Top 15 from the country's FOUR REGIONS.
But wait, there's more!
To do Step 2, take a look at the number of times each of the STATES made Top 15.
6 of the states you selected should be from the 20 states in the middle of the pack.
1 of your states should be from the 20 states that made Top 15 the least number of times.
So...if you don't have the right balance of 8-6-1, you can adjust your list. Here's how:
Add or subtract states from each category (Top 13, Middle 20, Remaining 20) until you have
8 from the Top 13, 6 from the Middle and 1 from the Remaining.
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| Teresa Cheatham (l.) and Carolyn Cline (r.) Miss Alabama 1978 & Miss Florida 1978 1st Runner-up & 2nd Runner-up |
(As a group, at least 6 but no more than 10 of these states have made the Top 15 each year)
8 of your 15 should be from:
Alabama (6 times in the Top 15/16/20 in those 11 years), Arkansas (7), California (8), Florida (8), Indiana (7), Kentucky (6), Maryland (5), New York (8), Oklahoma (9), South Carolina (5), Tennessee (7), Texas 98), and Virginia (6).
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| Julie Russell Miss Arkansas 1986 Top 10 Finalist |
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| Dana Brown Miss Tennessee 1990 2nd Runner-up |
(As a group, at least 4 but never more than 8 of these states have made the Top 15 each year)
6 of your 15 should be from:
Arizona (3 times in the "Top 15"), Connecticut (3), Delaware (2), District of Columbia (3), Georgia (4), Hawaii (4), Illinois (3), Iowa (5), Louisiana (2), Massachusetts (3), Michigan (4), Mississippi (5), Missouri (3), Nebraska (3), North Carolina (3), Oregon (3), Rhode Island (2), Utah (4), Washington (4), and Wisconsin (4).
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| Erika Schwarz Miss Louisiana 1996 1st Runner-up |
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| Laurie Nelson Miss Washington 1978 4th Runner-up |
(There have been years when none of these states made the 15 and at most 3 did in a single year.)
1 of your 15 should be from:
Alaska (0), Colorado (1), Idaho (1), Kansas (1), Maine (0), Minnesota (1), Montana (1), Nevada (1), New Hampshire (1), New Jersey (1), New Mexico (1), North Dakota (1), Ohio (1), Pennsylvania (1), Puerto Rico (0), South Dakota (1), Vermont (0), Virgin Islands (0), West Virginia (1), and Wyoming (1).
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| Maya Walker Miss Colorado 1988 1st Runner-up |
Friday, September 11, 2015
How To Predict The Top 10 Using Stastistics.2015
Ok, so you've seen all of the preliminary competitions or you've read everyone else's thoughts online.
You've watched all the "vote" videos.
You've studied the program book.
If you are in A.C., you'll be looking for that special spark during the parade tonight.
You've scoured the internet for photos, videos, and information on each contestant.
You've read everything Junkies has posted online.
You've clicked on every possible photo and video posted on FB.
And now you are trying to predict who will make the cut on Sunday night.
This blog post is here to confuse you even further.
In the words of Severus Snape (via JK Rowling), perhaps using the "exact art and subtle science" of STATISTICS (instead of Potions) might help you narrow your choices.
To predict the Top 10, I use stats going back 20 years (1995-2014). I don't use the full 60 years of television results because the point values have changed among the competition categories over the years, state organizations that help prepare winners for competition have evolved, etc. Twenty years gives me a large enough pool of statistics to analyze while still being recent and relevant enough for accuracy.
In the last 20 years, at least 2 and as many as all 6 prelim winners have made the 10, with an average of 4 over that span. (4 prelim winners have made Top 10 in five of the last 20 years; 2 or 3 have made it in seven years, and 5 or 6 have made it in eight years, but the average is 4).
Six (6) prelim winners in Top 10 (3 yrs): 2003, 1998, 1996 (two double winners)
Five (5) prelim winners in Top 10 (4 yrs): 2012, 2006, 2000 (one double winner), 1997
Four (4) prelim winners in Top 10 (6 yrs): 2013, 2011, 2005, 2002, 2001, 1995
Three (3) prelim winners in Top 10 (5 yrs): 2014, 2010, 2008, 2007, 2004
Two (2) prelim winners in Top 10 (2 yrs): 2009, 1999
The third night Swimsuit winner (IOWA) has a 85% chance of making Top 10. (17 of the last 20 yrs)
The second night Talent winner (LOUISIANA) has a 70% chance of making Top 10. (14 of 20)
The first night Talent winner (IOWA) has a 70% chance of making Top 10. (14 of 20)
The second night Swimsuit winner (FLORIDA) has a 70% chance of making Top 10. (14 of 20)
The first night Swimsuit winner (SOUTH CAROLINA) has a 60% chance of making Top 10. (12 of 20)
The third night Talent winner (GEORGIA) has a 50% chance of making Top 10. (10 of the last 20 yrs)
for stats about double prelim winners, see the previous blog post.
At least 1 and as many as 6 states have repeated in Top 10 from one year to the next over the last 20 years, but the average is for 3 states to repeat in the Top 10, which has happened 4 times over the last 20 years.
Pick 3 of these: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Virginia.
6 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2013a
5 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2011, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2000
4 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2013b, 2012, 2010, 2008, 1997, 1996
3 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2014, 1995
2 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2004, 2003, 2002, 1999, 1998
1 repeat in Top 10 from year before: 2001
Because 46.5% of the Top 10 come from the South, you need to pick 4 or 5 of these States:
(At least 3 states from this group but no more than 8 have made the Top 10 in the last 20 years)
Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.
Because 18.5% of the Top 10 come from the West, pick 2 from among:
(None of the West made it in '06 and '99 but 4 did in '11, '07, & '97, in other yrs between 1-3 did)
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.
Because 18% of the Top 10 came from the North, pick 1 or 2 from the following:
(The North didn't make 10 in '08, '97, and '96, but 4 did in '02, '01, & '99, in other yrs btw 1-3 did)
Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, Vermont, West Virginia.
Because 17% of the Top 10 come from the Midwest, pick 2 from the following:
(None of the Midwest made the 10 in '06 & '07 but 4 states did in '08, in other yrs between 1-3 have)
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
BUT, this exact 4-2-2-2 split has only happened twice in 20 years: in January, 2013 and in 1995, which means you can fluctuate a little bit: one more from one region and one fewer from another, etc.
Pick 6 from the Top 15 states (Range: 3-8 per year in the Top 10 in the last 20 years):
Alabama (9 times in Top 10 in the last 20 years), Arkansas (8), California (12), Florida (8), Georgia (6), Hawaii (8), Illinois (6), Kentucky (6), Louisiana (6), Mississippi (7), New York (9), Oklahoma (12), Tennessee (6), Texas (12), and Virginia (7).
Pick 3 from the Middle 19 states (Range: 2-5 per year in the Top 10 in the last 20 years):
Arizona (3), Connecticut (3), DC (5), Indiana (5), Iowa (4), Kansas (4), Maryland (5), Massachusetts (4), Michigan (4), Missouri (2), Nebraska (2), New Jersey (2), North Carolina (4), Oregon (4), Pennsylvania (4), South Carolina (2), Utah (2), Washington (4), and Wisconsin (5).
Pick 1 from these 19 states (Range 0-2 per year in the Top 10 in the last 20 years):
Alaska (1), Colorado (0), Delaware (1), Idaho (0), Maine (0), Minnesota (1), Montana (0), Nevada (1), New Hampshire (1), New Mexico (1), North Dakota (1), Ohio (1), Puerto Rico (0), Rhode Island (1), South Dakota (0), Vermont (0), Virgin Islands (0), West Virginia (1), and Wyoming (1).
(This exact grouping has happened three times in the last 20 years: 1997, 2002, and in September, 2013)
Now, take a look at your original predictions. Do you have too many from a particular region or too many from one of the three classifications based on their individual records? The actual results do swing within the ranges I have listed, but it's best to stay close to the historical averages.
And what about the Top 5? Do we dare?
Sure.
Pick 1 state from last year's Top 5 to repeat in this year's Top 5.
In 14 of the last 20 years, between 1-3 states have repeated in the Top 5 from the previous year's Top 5.
Pick 1 (but not more than 3) from: Arkansas, Florida, Massachusetts, New York, and Virginia.
Pick 2-3 from the South. (The South has had at least one Top 5 Finalist every year since 1990.)
Pick 1 from the Midwest.
Pick 1 from the West.
Pick 0-1 from the North.
(This 2-1-1-1 or 3-1-1-0 split occurred in both the January or September, 2013 competitions and in 2002.)
How often does a prelim winner take the title? 60% of the time.
A Swimsuit or Talent prelim winner has become Miss America in 12 of the last 20 years (not counting Erika Harold's Interview and Onstage Q&A Prelim wins in 2002).
BUT, Miss America has NEVER gone four years in a row with a non-prelim winner taking the title. There have been three separate times when non-prelim winners won three years in a row: 1955-56-57 (Sharon Ritchie, Marian McKnight, and Marilyn Van Derbur), 2002-03-04 (Erika Harold, Ericka Dunlap, and Deidre Downs), and the last three years (Mallory Hagan, Nina Davaluri, and Kira Kazantsev).
So don't automatically assume that a prelim winner will take the title of Miss America 2015, BUT ... consider that it's currently a 2-out-of-3 chance that a prelim winner WILL take the title, AND a fourth consecutive non-prelim winning Miss America would make history.
And see the previous blog post about double prelim winners since IOWA is our first double prelim winner in 15 years!
We'll know tomorrow night.
AND, tomorrow morning, I'll publish directions on how to create your Top 15 Semi-finalists list.
Questions, corrections, feedback, or suggestions? Post on the CROWNED Facebook page or email me at crownedmissa@gmail.com.
You've watched all the "vote" videos.
You've studied the program book.
If you are in A.C., you'll be looking for that special spark during the parade tonight.
You've scoured the internet for photos, videos, and information on each contestant.
You've read everything Junkies has posted online.
You've clicked on every possible photo and video posted on FB.
And now you are trying to predict who will make the cut on Sunday night.
This blog post is here to confuse you even further.
In the words of Severus Snape (via JK Rowling), perhaps using the "exact art and subtle science" of STATISTICS (instead of Potions) might help you narrow your choices.
Caveat: in NO year has the Top 10 reflected these exact stats. These are averages. Stay close to these, but vary as your heart directs.
So, make your list and then enjoy the reactions of the women who are called forward on Sunday night, like those pictured in this post.
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| Laurie Keller Miss Kentucky 1985 Top 10 Finalist |
STEP 1 in creating your Top 10 list:
Consider the Preliminary Winners
Pick four (4) Preliminary Winners to make Top 10. In the last 20 years, at least 2 and as many as all 6 prelim winners have made the 10, with an average of 4 over that span. (4 prelim winners have made Top 10 in five of the last 20 years; 2 or 3 have made it in seven years, and 5 or 6 have made it in eight years, but the average is 4).
Six (6) prelim winners in Top 10 (3 yrs): 2003, 1998, 1996 (two double winners)
Five (5) prelim winners in Top 10 (4 yrs): 2012, 2006, 2000 (one double winner), 1997
Four (4) prelim winners in Top 10 (6 yrs): 2013, 2011, 2005, 2002, 2001, 1995
Three (3) prelim winners in Top 10 (5 yrs): 2014, 2010, 2008, 2007, 2004
Two (2) prelim winners in Top 10 (2 yrs): 2009, 1999
The third night Swimsuit winner (IOWA) has a 85% chance of making Top 10. (17 of the last 20 yrs)
The second night Talent winner (LOUISIANA) has a 70% chance of making Top 10. (14 of 20)
The first night Talent winner (IOWA) has a 70% chance of making Top 10. (14 of 20)
The second night Swimsuit winner (FLORIDA) has a 70% chance of making Top 10. (14 of 20)
The first night Swimsuit winner (SOUTH CAROLINA) has a 60% chance of making Top 10. (12 of 20)
The third night Talent winner (GEORGIA) has a 50% chance of making Top 10. (10 of the last 20 yrs)
for stats about double prelim winners, see the previous blog post.
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| Tamara Marler Miss Oklahoma 1989 Top 10 Finalist & Talent Prelim Winner |
STEP 2:
Figure out which states will repeat in the Top 10 from last year
Pick three (3) states to repeat in the Top 10 from last year's Top 10.At least 1 and as many as 6 states have repeated in Top 10 from one year to the next over the last 20 years, but the average is for 3 states to repeat in the Top 10, which has happened 4 times over the last 20 years.
Pick 3 of these: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Massachusetts, Mississippi, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Virginia.
6 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2013a
5 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2011, 2009, 2007, 2006, 2000
4 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2013b, 2012, 2010, 2008, 1997, 1996
3 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2014, 1995
2 repeats in Top 10 from year before: 2004, 2003, 2002, 1999, 1998
1 repeat in Top 10 from year before: 2001
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| Arian Archer Miss Texas 1994 Top 10 Finalist |
STEP 3:
Select the appropriate number of states from each region of the country
| Year | South | West | North | Midwest | notes |
| 2014 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2013b | 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | return to AC |
| 2013 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | last yr in LV |
| 2012 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | |
| 2011 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2010 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 2009 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | |
| 2008 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 4 | |
| 2007 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | |
| 2006 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 0 | first yr in LV |
| 2004 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 1 | last yr in AC |
| 2003 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |
| 2002 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2001 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2000 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1999 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1998 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 1997 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 2 | |
| 1996 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | |
| 1995 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Totals | 93 | 37 | 36 | 34 | |
| Averages | 4.65 | 1.85 | 1.8 | 1.7 |
Because 46.5% of the Top 10 come from the South, you need to pick 4 or 5 of these States:
(At least 3 states from this group but no more than 8 have made the Top 10 in the last 20 years)
Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.
Because 18.5% of the Top 10 come from the West, pick 2 from among:
(None of the West made it in '06 and '99 but 4 did in '11, '07, & '97, in other yrs between 1-3 did)
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.
Because 18% of the Top 10 came from the North, pick 1 or 2 from the following:
(The North didn't make 10 in '08, '97, and '96, but 4 did in '02, '01, & '99, in other yrs btw 1-3 did)
Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, Vermont, West Virginia.
Because 17% of the Top 10 come from the Midwest, pick 2 from the following:
(None of the Midwest made the 10 in '06 & '07 but 4 states did in '08, in other yrs between 1-3 have)
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
BUT, this exact 4-2-2-2 split has only happened twice in 20 years: in January, 2013 and in 1995, which means you can fluctuate a little bit: one more from one region and one fewer from another, etc.
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| Debbie Reicks Miss Colorado 1989 2nd Runner-up |
STEP 4:
Adjust your list to also have the right group of states based on their records of making Top 10 in the last 20 years:
Predicting the Top 10 based on states' records of making the Top 10 in the last 20 yearsPick 6 from the Top 15 states (Range: 3-8 per year in the Top 10 in the last 20 years):
Alabama (9 times in Top 10 in the last 20 years), Arkansas (8), California (12), Florida (8), Georgia (6), Hawaii (8), Illinois (6), Kentucky (6), Louisiana (6), Mississippi (7), New York (9), Oklahoma (12), Tennessee (6), Texas (12), and Virginia (7).
Pick 3 from the Middle 19 states (Range: 2-5 per year in the Top 10 in the last 20 years):
Arizona (3), Connecticut (3), DC (5), Indiana (5), Iowa (4), Kansas (4), Maryland (5), Massachusetts (4), Michigan (4), Missouri (2), Nebraska (2), New Jersey (2), North Carolina (4), Oregon (4), Pennsylvania (4), South Carolina (2), Utah (2), Washington (4), and Wisconsin (5).
Pick 1 from these 19 states (Range 0-2 per year in the Top 10 in the last 20 years):
Alaska (1), Colorado (0), Delaware (1), Idaho (0), Maine (0), Minnesota (1), Montana (0), Nevada (1), New Hampshire (1), New Mexico (1), North Dakota (1), Ohio (1), Puerto Rico (0), Rhode Island (1), South Dakota (0), Vermont (0), Virgin Islands (0), West Virginia (1), and Wyoming (1).
(This exact grouping has happened three times in the last 20 years: 1997, 2002, and in September, 2013)
Now, take a look at your original predictions. Do you have too many from a particular region or too many from one of the three classifications based on their individual records? The actual results do swing within the ranges I have listed, but it's best to stay close to the historical averages.
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| Jennifer Makris Miss New Jersey 1994 2nd Runner-up |
Sure.
Pick 1 state from last year's Top 5 to repeat in this year's Top 5.
In 14 of the last 20 years, between 1-3 states have repeated in the Top 5 from the previous year's Top 5.
Pick 1 (but not more than 3) from: Arkansas, Florida, Massachusetts, New York, and Virginia.
Pick 2-3 from the South. (The South has had at least one Top 5 Finalist every year since 1990.)
Pick 1 from the Midwest.
Pick 1 from the West.
Pick 0-1 from the North.
(This 2-1-1-1 or 3-1-1-0 split occurred in both the January or September, 2013 competitions and in 2002.)
How often does a prelim winner take the title? 60% of the time.
A Swimsuit or Talent prelim winner has become Miss America in 12 of the last 20 years (not counting Erika Harold's Interview and Onstage Q&A Prelim wins in 2002).
BUT, Miss America has NEVER gone four years in a row with a non-prelim winner taking the title. There have been three separate times when non-prelim winners won three years in a row: 1955-56-57 (Sharon Ritchie, Marian McKnight, and Marilyn Van Derbur), 2002-03-04 (Erika Harold, Ericka Dunlap, and Deidre Downs), and the last three years (Mallory Hagan, Nina Davaluri, and Kira Kazantsev).
So don't automatically assume that a prelim winner will take the title of Miss America 2015, BUT ... consider that it's currently a 2-out-of-3 chance that a prelim winner WILL take the title, AND a fourth consecutive non-prelim winning Miss America would make history.
And see the previous blog post about double prelim winners since IOWA is our first double prelim winner in 15 years!
We'll know tomorrow night.
AND, tomorrow morning, I'll publish directions on how to create your Top 15 Semi-finalists list.
Questions, corrections, feedback, or suggestions? Post on the CROWNED Facebook page or email me at crownedmissa@gmail.com.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
Double Prelim Winners
Does winning both your Swimsuit and your Talent Prelim guarantee that you will win Miss America?
I am not including the double prelim winners in Gown and Interview in 2002 & 2003 since those were the only years that those additional prelim winners were announced. It's not apples-to-apples.
ONLY ABOUT 40% OF THE TIME.
Since 1950 (64 competitions),
a total of 22 women have been double prelim winners
in both Talent and Swimsuit.
One (1) made Top 12;
Three (3) made Top 10;
Three (3) placed as 2nd Runners-up;
Six (6) were named 1st Runner-up;
Nine (9) won MISS AMERICA (41%).
Three (3) placed as 2nd Runners-up;
Six (6) were named 1st Runner-up;
Nine (9) won MISS AMERICA (41%).
In the same time frame (1950-2014),
there have been three years with two double prelim winners:
1963
Rosann Tueller (District of Columbia)-1st Runner-up
Judith Short (Alabama)-Top 10
(DONNA AXUM-Arkansas-won Swimsuit)
(DONNA AXUM-Arkansas-won Swimsuit)
1976
DOROTHY BENHAM (Minnesota)-MISS AMERICA 1977
Carmen McCollum (Texas)-2nd Runner-up
1996
Patricia Leines (Oregon)-2nd Runner-up
Melissa Short (Hawaii)-Top 10
(TARA HOLLAND-Kansas-won Swimsuit)
(TARA HOLLAND-Kansas-won Swimsuit)
Our other 15 double prelim winners since 1950 have been:
1951- Lu Long Ogburn (North Carolina)-2nd Runner-up (COLLEEN HUTCHINS-Utah-won Talent)
1952 - NEVA JANE LANGLEY (Georgia)-MISS AMERICA 1953
1960 - NANCY FLEMING (Michigan)-MISS AMERICA 1961
1966 - Charlene Dallas (California)-1st Runner-up (JANE JAYROE-Oklahoma-won Talent)
1968 - JUDITH FORD (llinois)-MISS AMERICA 1969
1969 - Kathy Baumann (Ohio)-1st Runner-up (PAMELA ELDRED-Michigan-won Swimsuit)
1972 - TERRY MEEUWSEN (Wisconsin)-MISS AMERICA 1973
1978 - Teresa Cheatham (Alabama)-1st Runner-up (KYLENE BARKER-Virginia-won no prelims)
1982 - DEBBIE MAFFETT (California)-MISS AMERICA 1983
1983 - VANESSA WILLIAMS (New York)-MISS AMERICA 1984
1985 - Suellen Cochran (Ohio)-Top 10 (SUSAN AKIN-Missisisppi-won Swimsuit)
1986 - KELLYE CASH(Tennessee)-MISS AMERICA 1987
1992 - Catherine Ann Lemkau (Iowa)-1st Runner-up (LEANZA CORNETT-Florida-won no prelims)
1995 - HEATHER WHITESTONE (Alabama)-MISS AMERICA 1995
2000 - Faith Jenkins (Louisiana)-1st Runner-up (ANGELA BARAQUIO-Hawaii-won Swimsuit)
2015 - Taylor Wiebers (Iowa)-Top 12 (BETTY CANTRELL-Georgia-won Talent)
Additional acknowledgements to Alabama for having three (3) double prelim winners, and to California, Iowa and Ohio for two (2) each.
2015 - Taylor Wiebers (Iowa)-Top 12 (BETTY CANTRELL-Georgia-won Talent)
Additional acknowledgements to Alabama for having three (3) double prelim winners, and to California, Iowa and Ohio for two (2) each.
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