Tuesday, September 16, 2014

2014 Results vs Statistical Predictions

Let's see how this year's competition matched the historical averages that I posted earlier in the week.

In general:  The South and the Northeast had strong years while the Midwest and the West were off their usual averages. Also, the strongest states were a little stronger than usual.

The breakdown is below.

TOP 5 COMPARISON
Usually one state repeats in Top 5 from one year to the next.  This year two states returned to the Top 5 from last year:  New York and Florida (in the same spots they hit last year too).

Regional Top 5 averages are 2-3 from the South (3 this year); one from the Midwest (0 this year), one from the West (0 this year), and 0-1  from the North (2 this year).

TOP 10 COMPARISON
Preliminary Winners
Over the last 20 years, an average of FOUR winners have made Top 15 and then Top 10.
This year four made Top 16, and those four advanced in the Top 12, but only three made Top 10.

This is also the third time in history that three consecutive Miss Americas have won the title without also winning a swimsuit or talent prelim.

Repeats from last year
We were to select three states to repeat in Top 10 from last year.
This year three states DID repeat in Top 10 from last year - Florida, New York, and Oklahoma.

Selecting by region
The South had a big year with seven of this year's Top 10, against an average of four or five.
The Northeast usually has one, maybe two, and did indeed have two this year.
The Midwest had one and usually averages two.
The West usually has two but none made Top 10 this year.

Selecting based on record of making Top 10
The Top 10 followed these averages fairly closely.

The 15 states with the best records have put an average of six into the Top 10 and this year seven made it: (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Mississippi, New York, Oklahoma, and Virginia).
The 15 states with the second-best records have an average of three and two made it this year:
(Massachusetts and Tennessee)
The 23 states with the third-best records usually have one in Top 10 each year and one did make it this year:
(Ohio)

TOP 16 COMPARISON
Selecting by Region
The South had nine of the Top 16 compared to its historical average of 6 or 7.
The Midwest met its average of 3 with 3 in reality.
The West only had Idaho's America's Choice placement against its average of 3.
The Northeast hit its upper average with 3.

Selecting by Record
The 13 states with the best record usually have 8 of the Top 15 and this year, that group had 9.
(Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, New York, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia)
The 20 states with the second-best records usually have 6 of the Top 15 and this year they only had 4.
(Connecticut, Iowa, Massachusetts, and Mississippi)
The 20 states with the third-best records usually have 1 of the Top 15 and this year they had 3.
(Idaho, North Dakota, and Ohio)

Questions, corrections, feedback, or suggestions?  Post on the CROWNED Facebook page or email me at crownedmissa@gmail.com.

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