Ok, so you've seen all of the preliminary competitions or you've read everyone else's thoughts online.
You've watched all the "vote" videos.
You've studied the program book.
If you are in A.C., you'll be looking for that special spark during the parade tonight.
You've scoured the internet for photos, videos, and information on each contestant.
You've read everything Junkies, Class Updates, and Unlimited have posted online.
You've clicked on every possible photo and video posted on FB.
And now you are trying to predict who will make the cut on Sunday night.
This blog post is here to confuse you even further.
In the words of Severus Snape (via JK Rowling), perhaps using the "
exact art and subtle science" of statistics (instead of Potions) might help you narrow your choices.
To predict the Top 10, I use statistics going back 20 years (1994-2013). I don't use the full 60 years of television results that I used for my countdown because the point values have changed among the competition categories over the years, state organizations that help prepare winners for competition have evolved, etc. Twenty years gives me a large enough pool of statistics to analyze while still being recent and relevant enough for accuracy.
Caveat: in NO year has the Top 10 reflected these exact stats. These are averages. Stay close to these, but vary as your heart directs.
So, make your list and then enjoy the reactions of the women who are called forward on Sunday night, like those pictured in this post.
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Laurie Keller
Miss Kentucky 1985
Top 10 Finalist |
STEP 1 in creating your Top 10 list:
Consider the Preliminary Winners
Pick four (4) Preliminary Winners to make Top 10.
In the last 20 years, at least 2 and as many as all 6 prelim winners have made the 10, with an average of 4 over that span. (4 prelim winners have made Top 10 in five of the last 20 years; 2 or 3 have made it in seven years, and 5 or 6 have made it in eight years, but the average is 4).
The third night Swimsuit winner (MARYLAND) has a 85% chance of making Top 10.
(17 of the last 20 yrs)
The second night Talent winner (KENTUCKY) has a 75% chance of making Top 10.
(15 of 20)
The first night Talent winner (OHIO) has a 70% chance of making Top 10.
(14 of 20)
The second night Swimsuit winner (OKLAHOMA) has a 70% chance of making Top 10.
(14 of 20)
The first night Swimsuit winner (FLORIDA) has a 60% chance of making Top 10.
(12 of 20)
The third night Talent winner (PENNSYLVANIA) has a 55% chance of making Top 10.
(11 of the last 20 yrs)
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Tamara Marler
Miss Oklahoma 1989
Top 10 Finalist & Talent Prelim Winner |
STEP 2:
Figure out which states will repeat in the Top 10
Pick three (3) states to repeat in the Top 10 from last year's Top 10.
At least 1 and as many as 6 states have repeated in Top 10 from one year to the next over the last 20 years, but the average is for 3 states to repeat in the Top 10, which has happened 4 times over the last 20 years.
Last year's Top 10 included: California, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Kansas, Maryland, Minnesota, New York, Oklahoma, and Texas. (Pick 3 of these.)
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Arian Archer
Miss Texas 1994
Top 10 Finalist |
STEP 3:
Select the appropriate number of states from each region of the country
Because 45.5% of the Top 10 come from the South, you need to pick 4 or 5 of these States:
(At least 3 states from this group but no more than 8 have made the Top 10 in the last 20 years)
Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia.
Because 18% of the Top 10 come from the Midwest, pick 2 from the following:
(None of the Midwest made the 10 in '06 & '07 but 4 states did in '08, in other yrs between 1-3 have)
Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
Because 20% of the Top 10 come from the West, pick 2 from among:
(None of the West made it in '06 and '99 but 4 did in '11, '07, & '97, in other yrs between 1-3 did)
Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming.
Because 16.5% of the Top 10 came from the North, pick 1 or 2 from the following:
(The North didn't make 10 in '08, '97, and '96, but 4 did in '02, '01, & '99, in other yrs btw 1-3 did)
Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Puerto Rico, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virgin Islands, West Virginia.
BUT, this exact 4-2-2-2 split has only happened twice in 20 years: in January, 2013 and in 1995, which means you can fluctuate a little bit: one more from one region and one fewer from another, etc.
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Debbie Reicks
Miss Colorado 1989
2nd Runner-up |
STEP 4:
Adjust your list to also have the right group of states based on their records of making Top 10 in the last 20 years:
Predicting the Top 10 based on states' records of making the Top 10 in the last 20 years
Pick 6 from the Top 15 states (Range: 3-8 per year in the Top 10 in the last 20 years):
Alabama (9 times in Top 10 in the last 20 years), Arkansas (7), California (12), Florida (7), Georgia (7), Hawaii (8), Illinois (6), Indiana (6), Kentucky (6), Louisiana (6), Mississippi (7), New York (8), Oklahoma (11), Texas (13), and Virginia (7).
Pick 3 from the Middle 15 states (Range: 2-5 per year in the Top 10 in the last 20 years):
Arizona (3), Connecticut (3), DC (5), Iowa (4), Kansas (5), Maryland (5), Massachusetts (3), Michigan (4), New Jersey (3), North Carolina (4), Oregon (4), Pennsylvania (4), Tennessee (5), Washington (4), and Wisconsin (4).
Pick 1 from these 23 states (Range 0-2 per year in the Top 10 in the last 20 years):
Alaska (1), Colorado (0), Delaware (1), Idaho (0), Maine (0), Minnesota (1), Missouri (2), Montana (1), Nebraska (2), Nevada (1), New Hampshire (1), New Mexico (1), North Dakota (1), Ohio (1), Puerto Rico (0), Rhode Island (1), South Carolina (2), South Dakota (0), Utah (2), Vermont (0), Virgin Islands (0), West Virginia (1), and Wyoming (1).
(This exact grouping has happened three times in the last 20 years: 1997, 2002, and in September, 2013)
Now, take a look at your original predictions. Do you have too many from a particular region or too many from one of the three classifications based on their individual records? The actual results do swing within the ranges I have listed, but it's best to stay close to the historical averages.
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Jennifer Makris
Miss New Jersey 1994
2nd Runner-up |
And what about the Top 5? Do we dare?
Sure.
Pick 1 state from last year's Top 5 to repeat in this year's Top 5.
In 13 of the last 20 years, between 1-3 states have repeated in the Top 5 from the previous year's Top 5.
Pick 1 (but not more than 3) from: California, Florida, Minnesota, New York, and Oklahoma.
Pick 2-3 from the South. (The South has had at least one Top 5 Finalist every year since 1990.)
Pick 1 from the Midwest.
Pick 1 from the West.
Pick 0-1 from the North.
(This 2-1-1-1 or 3-1-1-0 split occurred in both the January or September, 2013 competitions and in 2002.)
How often does a prelim winner take the title? 65% of the time.
A Swimsuit or Talent prelim winner has become Miss America in 13 of the last 20 years (not counting Erika Harold's Interview and Onstage Q&A Prelim wins in 2002).
Neither Mallory nor Nina won a prelim in the last two years. Miss America has NEVER gone four years in a row with a non-prelim winner taking the title. There have been two separate times when non-prelim winners won three years in a row: 1955-56-57 (Sharon Ritchie, Marian McKnight, and Marilyn Van Derbur) and again in 2002-03-04 (Erika Harold, Ericka Dunlap, and Deidre Downs).
So don't automatically assume that a prelim winner will take the title of Miss America 2015, BUT ... consider that it's currently a 2-out-of-3 chance that a prelim winner WILL take the title.
We'll know tomorrow night.
AND, tomorrow morning, I'll publish directions on how to create your Top 15 Semi-finalists list.
Questions, corrections, feedback, or suggestions? Post on the CROWNED Facebook page or email me at crownedmissa@gmail.com.
